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Election Prediction

With only a few days remaining, I predict Obama will (more or less) sweep the swing states and ride to an easy electoral college victory.

Romney’s only swing state wins will be for states that previously seceded from the union – Virginia and Florida.

New York Times map of my predictions.

These predictions are more or less in line with the polling data and predictions compiled by 538, other than that I predict the close race in Virginia going to Romney.

Electoral College

There is a small but perhaps larger than normal chance the electoral college and popular vote may differ in results, as happened in 2000.

I, personally, still think the electoral college is an ingenious mechanism designed to make sure our one national office reflects a broad constituency – rather than just trying to run up support in high population areas.

The real problem I see is that our founders knew there would be big states and small states, but didn’t predict the scale at which the big states would be bigger than others, in part due to geography and in part due to the urbanization of the country.

We might have a “fairer” system more in line with the intent of the electoral college if some of the bigger states like California and Texas split themselves up, which I think is a good idea anyway, but is pretty much never going to happen.

A compromise that would keep the spirit of the system and probably be in voters’ self-interest would be allocating electoral college votes not proportionally based on popular vote, but all or nothing based on wins within congressional districts, like Maine and Nebraska do.

(Or perhaps even new geographic entities – so something like a northern, central, and southern California voting block.)

I expect that Republican controlled legislatures in some big states like Texas, when they admit to themselves shifting demographics may indicate Democratic electoral college victories in the future, will have a newfound interest in these alternatives.

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